Luke’s Future of Work Predictions for 2023

The 4-day week, the anti-work movement, digital nomads, and other trends in the future of work.

The new year brings with it new resolutions, new prospects and a sense of new beginnings. January is typically the month that the market sees a lot of movement. Often this mobility is driven by many companies distributing bonuses and such in December. However, the economic downturn in late 2022 first impacted many Venture Capital (VC) funded start-ups which saw a flood of talent enter the job market and the rest of the market might be catching up.

2022 also saw massive burnout at all levels

So, how does this impact the current market and what are people looking for in 2023 when it comes to work? Let’s take a look at the trends and rumours that emerged in 2022 and their likely impact this year.

1.   The 4-day week

2022 was the year the 4-day week actually gained real traction. For the past decade, it was a fringe topic in board rooms, offsites and team building and ideation days, but in 2022 it became a reality for some companies. And not just small businesses, big players like Unilever, Telstra, Medibank, RMIT and RMIT all trialled the 4-day week.

CNN named the 4-day week as one of the nine most important new ideas in business. Why? Well as people continue to continue to recover from the pandemic, long hours, workplace stress, zoom fatigue, hustle culture and remote working combined with the mounting pressures of daily life have emerged as urgent problems.

So, in response, the proposal for a shorter workweek is an obvious one. The reduction of working hours has prompted many a debate which has highlighted the possible benefits such as the reduced negative impact on our environment, economic growth, and more time to spend focused on social issues.

The momentum toward a 4-day week has been steadily growing and there is even an organisation called 4 Day Week Global whose mission is to help companies implement a 32-hour week with no pay reduction. Thanks to some progressive thinking companies that worked with 4 Day Week Global, research was able to be conducted in partnership with Cambridge University, Boston College, and independent local researchers and the results of the study are positively staggering.

Companies provided resoundingly positive outcomes with higher employee productivity and employee satisfaction.

My prediction is that the 4-day-week is likely to continue to gain favour and likely to be widely adopted particularly if unions decide to champion this. I say unions because they have a history of influencing governments around working weeks. Unions in Australia are responsible for the 888 day. 8 hours of work, 8 hours of sleep and 8 hours of play. If they do get on board then they may need to weld a 4 on the monument in Melbourne.

2.   The Anti-work Movement

As the pandemic stretched into 2 years, workers began to re-evaluate what they got out of work and the work they were doing. Some however questioned the purpose of work entirely with many questioning the need for many roles at all, arguing that roles, particularly low/no skilled roles devalue humans, drive wage slavery, and exist purely for political power and excess capitalism. This anti-work movement has seen significant growth in the last 3 years with one Reddit feed (r/antiwork) growing to a whopping 2.5 million community members. It is a movement primarily focused towards entry-level workers however they are not the only ones looking at ditching the hustle culture. According to a Deloitte study in mid-2022, 70% of C-suite executives are looking to quit their roles in favour of jobs that support better well-being.

The Anti-work movement isn’t suggesting that there should be no work at all, instead that work should be only required when needed instead of working to create excess goods that sit in docks and warehouses and that work should be self-organising.

So, will the Anti-work movement continue to gain momentum? With the current Australian unemployment rate at 3.7%, it’s easy to see how many entry-level or low/no skill roles are becoming filled again, lending to the rise in employees feeling unfulfilled in their work, however, it also suggests people are not simply willing to walk away from much-needed wages. In fact, 64,000 people gained new full and part-time employment last month taking the number of Australians working to 9,601,500 people.

The last few years saw many workplaces short-staffed, causing burnout in the workplace, which helped give rise to the 2022 trend of 'quiet quitting' where staff were ditching “hustle culture” and only putting in the minimum required hour and doing the bare minimum to remain employed.

I believe that we will see, not a rise in an anti-work movement or quiet quitting but a shift of focus by employers to measurable goals that align with business outcomes and not time-based input. This is the equation that I believe will be solved in 2023.

3.   The Tech Industry Talent Loss Will Be Other Industries Gain.

The tech industry (particularly VC-funded start-ups) laid off an inordinate number of employees in the back half of 2022. Many start-ups applied a tactic called blitz scaling where they would scale at rapid rates with personnel (particularly in sales, support, and marketing) in the belief that more rounds of funding were just around the corner. Venture Capital prior to 2022 seemed to be an unlimited pool of funds that with nothing more than a fancy PowerPoint presentation could be obtained at will. I’ve read of many start-ups that thought they were going to get additional funding in 2022 and spent up accordingly to find out that Venture Capitalists were all applying this weird concept of due diligence and caution.

What seemed like an overnight shift, layoffs commenced in droves which, from a quick look around LinkedIn is still evident. Contemporaneously share prices took a huge hit and the sexy allure of start-up life was marred.  

Is this the end of the start-up boom? On the contrary, many a start-up is born in times of trouble and adversity, and I believe that start-ups solving for workplace flexibility, self-organising workforces, AI integration and hybrid work solutions will be winners in 2023.

But what about all that talent in the marketplace? Many of the roles cut by the tech industry were sales, marketing and customer service, all transferable skills that other industries need right now, including retail, healthcare, and finance. These industries will welcome not only the skills but the newfound knowledge, ideas and skills learned in the start-up and tech world.

4. The Global Rise of The Digital Nomad

There is no talk of returning to previous ways of working and companies are realising that debating who should be in the office is a huge waste of time and resources. Work is a thing you do, not a place you go. 

Talent demand is still likely to outstrip talent supply in 2023 so it will be a company culture of embracing flexible and remote work that will attract and retain talent. It’s for this reason that I believe that the Digital Nomad will be a common phrase we all use by the end of 2023.

Many governments already have digital nomad visas and if not are working to implement them at pace. To date, there are over 50 countries with digital nomad visa programs already in place. As a Digital Nomad, you are entitled to work in another country for a set time without the need for a company sponsorship which historically is not easy to get a hold of.

As people continue to look at work in a new light, valuing life experience over having work define them, where you work will play a huge role. Acceptance of the Digital Nomad will allow employees to work anywhere and not miss out on career progression. It is no longer either-or. This movement will also weigh heavily on the war for talent in 2023.

5. The A.I. Battle

A.I. is quickly becoming widely available with things like ChatGPT. But will it become widely accepted by employees and employers when it affects who is doing the work? Let me explain, my prediction is that there will be a battle over when A.I. is used. Employers will undoubtedly look to A.I. to replace certain functions and roles, entry-level analyst roles and some customer service functions like web chat. Employees will look to A.I. to make their jobs easier, and more efficient and improve the quality of their work. Some employers will intervene in this and ban the use of A.I. assisted work. Maybe even introduce A.I. to detect A.I. A good use case for this is the detection of A.I. written résumés.

The debate will rise over when it is ok to replace roles with A.I. - Lawyers will argue both sides, debating over the ethics and over the precedence set in other industries such as automotive.

Some employers will embrace employees using A.I. with conditions, such as ensuring there is a level of human peer review to ensure accuracy and non-bias. This acceptance may also strengthen the argument for a 4-day week as employees' output is increased.

The Wrap-up

This by no means is a conclusive list. To cover all industries, countries, economies and my gut feelings, would take way more resources than just my reading and research. So, I am curious as to your thoughts. What is the futurist inside you saying will be the biggest trend for work and employee engagement in 2023?

 Until next time and as always

Hooroo!